Probability Analysis

***PLEASE SEE Statistical Terms review sheet ATTATCHED

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.
Options:
  Facility Demand Options Probability Actions Expected Payoffs          Large Low Demand 0.4 Do Nothing ($10)    Low Demand 0.4 Reduce Prices $50    High Demand 0.6  $70          Small Low Demand 0.4  $40    High Demand 0.6 Do Nothing $40    High Demand 0.6 Overtime $50    High Demand 0.6 Expand $55    
 

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:
  Build Small:    Low Demand 0.4($40)=$16   High Demand 0.6($55)=$33       Build Large:    Low Demand 0.4($50)=$20   High Demand 0.6($70)=$42    
Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62

Place your order
(550 words)

Approximate price: $22

Calculate the price of your order

550 words
We'll send you the first draft for approval by September 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM
Total price:
$26
The price is based on these factors:
Academic level
Number of pages
Urgency
Basic features
  • Free title page and bibliography
  • Unlimited revisions
  • Plagiarism-free guarantee
  • Money-back guarantee
  • 24/7 support
On-demand options
  • Writer’s samples
  • Part-by-part delivery
  • Overnight delivery
  • Copies of used sources
  • Expert Proofreading
Paper format
  • 275 words per page
  • 12 pt Arial/Times New Roman
  • Double line spacing
  • Any citation style (APA, MLA, Chicago/Turabian, Harvard)

Our guarantees

Delivering a high-quality product at a reasonable price is not enough anymore.
That’s why we have developed 5 beneficial guarantees that will make your experience with our service enjoyable, easy, and safe.

Money-back guarantee

You have to be 100% sure of the quality of your product to give a money-back guarantee. This describes us perfectly. Make sure that this guarantee is totally transparent.

Read more

Zero-plagiarism guarantee

Each paper is composed from scratch, according to your instructions. It is then checked by our plagiarism-detection software. There is no gap where plagiarism could squeeze in.

Read more

Free-revision policy

Thanks to our free revisions, there is no way for you to be unsatisfied. We will work on your paper until you are completely happy with the result.

Read more

Privacy policy

Your email is safe, as we store it according to international data protection rules. Your bank details are secure, as we use only reliable payment systems.

Read more

Fair-cooperation guarantee

By sending us your money, you buy the service we provide. Check out our terms and conditions if you prefer business talks to be laid out in official language.

Read more
Use the discount code "30OFFNOW" today and get a 30% offOrder Now