Forecasting Future Manpower Requirements /Needs

Today the banking institutions in the UAE and indeed those in the rest of the world, operate in a very dynamic environment. In other words, the impacts that have been realized by new technology and factors that are political in nature have resulted into businesses that need to change their products and services as well as their internal processes on a continual basis (Winfred et al 2001). These changing policies come with changes in the way work is carried out thus implying that these policy changes have implications on the employees. This brings into focus the concept of manpower forecasting (Bratton & Gold 2003).
Manpower forecasting by the banking institutions in the UAE can be done by extrapolation or by correlation models (Winfred et al 2001). The extrapolation technique when used in forecasting manpower assumes that the supply of labor can be obtained from past trends and that the fundamental variable that changes is time. On the contrary, the use of correlation models when used in manpower forecasting would be founded upon the correlations that exist between the supply of labor and explanatory variables like turnover, the volume of sales, or output (Winfred et al 2001).
In this regard the expectation is that a change in one of the variable such as turnover will cause a change in the labor supply by some factor. Recommendations The manpower forecasting model should operate within a HR division of the banking institutions in the UAE (Bratton & Gold 2003). Also, the HR forecasting simulation model used should provide answers that can be useful in solving specific problems in which case, the forecasting models should not rely heavily on historical data since the data could be unreliable in a dynamic business world (Winfred et al 2001).

Manpower planning should be viewed as an integral component of strategic human resource management. It should be noted too that to identify real talent in the organization, it is important to use both qualitative and quantitative evaluations (Bratton & Gold 2003). Finally, manpower planning should be related to the core competency, mission and strategy of the banking institutions in the UAE in order to act as a source of competitive advantage (Ahluwalia 2007). Conclusion
Manpower planning is a managerial function which entails forecasting, the establishment of objectives, scheduling, policy formulation, the establishment of procedures and budgeting among others (Ahluwalia 2007). The core steps in manpower planning include establishing priorities, converting the proprieties into objectives and plans after which the plans are implemented. Finally, the implemented plans are monitored (Bratton & Gold 2003). Manpower planning is part and parcel of the overall planning of the banking institutions in the UAE.
The main focus of manpower planning is the number of employees who are likely to be recruited in relation to the supply of employees in the labor market. Manpower planning can be undertaken either through managerial judgment, statistical evaluations. Alternatively it can be achieved from productivity projections or through work studies (Bratton & Gold 2003). In essence, the HR and top management of the banking institutions in the UAE need to work harmoniously towards formulating the overall strategy and targets of the organizations Bratton & Gold 2003).
This means that the HR management system needs to be tailor made in tandem with the strategy demands of the business. It is only in this way that the manpower planning process whether internally or externally will result in the right human resources that will be a strong source of competitive advantage for the banks (Ahluwalia 2007). Therefore an effective the manpower planning process, effectively contributes towards the achievement of the organizational strategies and targets.
References Acocella, N. 2005, Economic policy in the Age of Globalization, Cambridge University Press.Ahluwalia, S. 2007, Strategic Human Resource Management, AllWays DeSiGNs, IndianMBA. com. Ashwini, A. , 2009, Manpower Planning, ArticlesWave. com. Beaverstock, J. V. 1996a, Migration, Knowledge and Social Interaction: Expatriate Labour within Investment Banks, Area 28, pp. 459-470. Bhasin, T. M. 2002, Technology Implementation and HRD Initiatives in Public Sector Banks in India, Banks Economists Conference, Indian Banking: Managing Transformations, pp. 536-548. Bratton, J. , & Gold, J. 2003, Human Resource Management: Theory and Practice, 3rd Edition, Palgrave Macmillan.

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